SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA : WHEN THE NILE RUNS DRY
Scramble for Africa: When the
Nile Runs Dry
By LESTER R. BROWN
A NEW scramble for Africa is
under way. As global food prices rise and
exporters reduce shipments of commodities, countries that rely on
imported grain are panicking. Affluent countries like Saudi Arabia,
South Korea, China and India have descended on fertile plains across
the African continent, acquiring huge tracts of land to produce wheat,
rice and corn for consumption back home.
imported grain are panicking. Affluent countries like Saudi Arabia,
South Korea, China and India have descended on fertile plains across
the African continent, acquiring huge tracts of land to produce wheat,
rice and corn for consumption back home.
Some of these land acquisitions
are enormous. South Korea, which
imports 70 percent of its grain, has acquired 1.7 million acres in
Sudan to grow wheat — an area twice the size of Rhode Island. In
Ethiopia, a Saudi firm has leased 25,000 acres to grow rice, with the
option of expanding. India has leased several hundred thousand acres
there to grow corn, rice and other crops. And in countries like Congo
and Zambia, China is acquiring land for biofuel production.
These land grabs shrink the food supply in famine-prone African
imports 70 percent of its grain, has acquired 1.7 million acres in
Sudan to grow wheat — an area twice the size of Rhode Island. In
Ethiopia, a Saudi firm has leased 25,000 acres to grow rice, with the
option of expanding. India has leased several hundred thousand acres
there to grow corn, rice and other crops. And in countries like Congo
and Zambia, China is acquiring land for biofuel production.
These land grabs shrink the food supply in famine-prone African
nations and anger local farmers, who see their governments selling
their ancestral lands to foreigners. They also pose a grave threat to
Africa’s newest democracy: Egypt.
their ancestral lands to foreigners. They also pose a grave threat to
Africa’s newest democracy: Egypt.
Egypt is a nation of bread
eaters. Its citizens consume 18 million
tons of wheat annually, more than half of which comes from abroad.
Egypt is now the world’s leading wheat importer, and subsidized bread
— for which the government doles out approximately $2 billion per year
— is seen as an entitlement by the 60 percent or so of Egyptian
families who depend on it.
tons of wheat annually, more than half of which comes from abroad.
Egypt is now the world’s leading wheat importer, and subsidized bread
— for which the government doles out approximately $2 billion per year
— is seen as an entitlement by the 60 percent or so of Egyptian
families who depend on it.
As Egypt tries to fashion a
functioning democracy after President
Hosni Mubarak’s departure, land grabs to the south are threatening its
ability to put bread on the table because all of Egypt’s grain is
either imported or produced with water from the Nile River, which
flows north through Ethiopia and Sudan before reaching Egypt. (Since
rainfall in Egypt is negligible to nonexistent, its agriculture is
totally dependent on the Nile.)
Unfortunately for Egypt, two of
the favorite targets for land
Hosni Mubarak’s departure, land grabs to the south are threatening its
ability to put bread on the table because all of Egypt’s grain is
either imported or produced with water from the Nile River, which
flows north through Ethiopia and Sudan before reaching Egypt. (Since
rainfall in Egypt is negligible to nonexistent, its agriculture is
totally dependent on the Nile.)
Unfortunately for Egypt, two of
the favorite targets for land
acquisitions are Ethiopia and Sudan, which together occupy
three-fourths of the Nile River Basin. Today’s demands for water are
such that there is little left of the river when it eventually empties
into the Mediterranean.
three-fourths of the Nile River Basin. Today’s demands for water are
such that there is little left of the river when it eventually empties
into the Mediterranean.
The Nile Waters Agreement,
which Egypt and Sudan signed in 1959, gave
Egypt 75 percent of the river’s flow, 25 percent to Sudan and none to
Ethiopia. This situation is changing abruptly as wealthy foreign
governments and international agribusinesses snatch up large swaths of
arable land along the Upper Nile. While these deals are typically
described as land acquisitions, they are also, in effect, water
acquisitions.
Egypt 75 percent of the river’s flow, 25 percent to Sudan and none to
Ethiopia. This situation is changing abruptly as wealthy foreign
governments and international agribusinesses snatch up large swaths of
arable land along the Upper Nile. While these deals are typically
described as land acquisitions, they are also, in effect, water
acquisitions.
Now, when competing for Nile
water, Cairo must deal with several
governments and commercial interests that were not party to the 1959
agreement. Moreover, Ethiopia — never enamored of the agreement — has
announced plans to build a huge hydroelectric dam on its branch of the
Nile that would reduce the water flow to Egypt even more.
governments and commercial interests that were not party to the 1959
agreement. Moreover, Ethiopia — never enamored of the agreement — has
announced plans to build a huge hydroelectric dam on its branch of the
Nile that would reduce the water flow to Egypt even more.
Because Egypt’s wheat yields
are already among the world’s highest, it
has little potential to raise its agricultural productivity. With its
population of 81 million projected to reach 101 million by 2025,
finding enough food and water is a daunting challenge.
has little potential to raise its agricultural productivity. With its
population of 81 million projected to reach 101 million by 2025,
finding enough food and water is a daunting challenge.
Egypt’s plight could become
part of a larger, more troubling scenario.
Its upstream Nile neighbors — Sudan, with 44 million people, and
Ethiopia, with 83 million — are growing even faster, increasing the
need for water to produce food. Projections by the United Nations show
the combined population of these three countries increasing to 272
million by 2025 — and 360 million by 2050 — from 208 million now.
Its upstream Nile neighbors — Sudan, with 44 million people, and
Ethiopia, with 83 million — are growing even faster, increasing the
need for water to produce food. Projections by the United Nations show
the combined population of these three countries increasing to 272
million by 2025 — and 360 million by 2050 — from 208 million now.
Growing water demand, driven by
population growth and foreign land and
water acquisitions, are straining the Nile’s natural limits. Avoiding
dangerous conflicts over water will require three transnational
initiatives. First, governments must address the population threat
head-on by ensuring that all women have access to family planning
services and by providing education for girls in the region. Second,
countries must adopt more water-efficient irrigation technologies and
plant less water-intensive crops.
water acquisitions, are straining the Nile’s natural limits. Avoiding
dangerous conflicts over water will require three transnational
initiatives. First, governments must address the population threat
head-on by ensuring that all women have access to family planning
services and by providing education for girls in the region. Second,
countries must adopt more water-efficient irrigation technologies and
plant less water-intensive crops.
Finally, for the sake of peace
and future development cooperation, the
nations of the Nile River Basin should come together to ban land grabs
by foreign governments and agribusiness firms. Since there is no
precedent for this, international help in negotiating such a ban,
similar to the World Bank’s role in facilitating the 1960 Indus Waters
Treaty between India and Pakistan, would likely be necessary to make
it a reality.
nations of the Nile River Basin should come together to ban land grabs
by foreign governments and agribusiness firms. Since there is no
precedent for this, international help in negotiating such a ban,
similar to the World Bank’s role in facilitating the 1960 Indus Waters
Treaty between India and Pakistan, would likely be necessary to make
it a reality.
None of these initiatives will
be easy to implement, but all are
essential. Without them, rising bread prices could undermine Egypt’s
revolution of hope and competition for the Nile’s water could turn
deadly.
essential. Without them, rising bread prices could undermine Egypt’s
revolution of hope and competition for the Nile’s water could turn
deadly.
Lester R. Brown is the
president of the Earth Policy Institute and the
author of “World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and
Economic Collapse.”
author of “World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and
Economic Collapse.”
END
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