“Hotspots of Climate Change Impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa and Implications for Adaptation and Development

Climate Change and Africa: new report outlines continent’s hotspots – By
Peter Kahare

Climatic conditions in Kenya have seen radical shifts over the last few
years. ‘Normal’ seasons have been characterised by harsh, erratic and
extreme events. Dry seasons have become longer; temperatures have risen,
while rains have fallen with abnormally high intensity – leaving a trail of
destruction ranging from deaths to displacement.

The changing weather patterns have bewildered many analysts in Kenya, who
now say that the increasingly unpredictable weather patterns are likely to
be a result of the climate change.

Weather experts in Kenya are generally in agreement with researchers
elsewhere who say that although the effects of climate change are going to
impact most parts of the African continent, some regions will be hit much
harder than others.

*Hotspots*

A group of scientists in Germany now say that, for the first time, they
have identified the “hotspots of climate change in Africa,” which cover
three regions where people should prepare for multiple climatic problems
over the next 20 years.

According to scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), the three regions most at risk are parts of Sudan and
Ethiopia, the countries around Lake Victoria, and the continent’s
south-eastern corner (especially parts of South Africa, Mozambique and
Zimbabwe).

“These regions are expected to see more severe dry seasons and reduced
plant growth, with flooding in countries around Lake Victoria.”

The researchers say that globally Africa has already experience above
average affects from the changing global climate – the continent’s above
average share of poor and undernourished people also increases the
potential human impact of this situation.

“Science and Policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for
development under climate change,” note the scientists in a research report
titled: “Hotspots of Climate Change Impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa and
Implications for Adaptation and Development
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12586/abstract>.”

In their findings – published mid-May this year in the journal ‘Global
Change Biology’ – lead author Christopher Muller says “we tried to identify
the places where climate change really hurts the most…These are the regions
where climate change impacts are most likely, strong and possibly severe.”

Muller explains that the conditions that create “hotspots of risk” are the
overlapping impacts of climate change including drought, floods, declining
crop yields and ecosystem damage.

According to their projections, the researchers estimate that all of
Sub-Saharan Africa runs some risks of being negatively affected by the
climate change.

For example, increase in flooding is likely across Sub-Saharan Africa but
is much higher in Tanzania, Uganda and southern Ethiopia, where most
climate scenarios project increasing rainfalls.

Conversely, the probability of an increase in dry periods is likely to be
more pronounced in regions of Ethiopia, Sudan and Eritrea.

Also in Sudan and Ethiopia, the researchers indicate there are high
populations mostly constituted by poor people who are directly affected by
the climate change impacts. “Consequently, these regions are not only
hotspot regions of biophysical perspective, but also from social-economic
perspective.”

High population density and poverty rates in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia,
Zimbabwe and in the Lake Victoria region render these regions as climate
change hotspots of high relevance for adaptation planning.

The scientists concur that there will be uncertainties in assessing climate
change impacts. “But [states Muller] this can inform development
strategies, allowing an assessment of impacts’ likelihood and potential
severity and a choice of ways to adapt.”

*No Data*

Herman Lotze-Campen, co-chair of PIK’s research domain ‘Climate Impacts and
Vulnerability’ says “it’s all about risks”. He notes that people in Africa
have to live with uncertainties due to lack of perfect data about the
future of climate change impacts.

“We have to live with uncertainties, we do not have perfect data on the
future of climate change, but computer simulation can help to understand
likelihoods and possible impacts.”

According to Edward Mungai, CEO of the Climate Innovation Center (CIC),
based in Nairobi, “Like any other country in Africa and the world, Kenya is
exposed to climate change – adaptation, sustainability and mitigation
measures have to be taken by both private and public sectors.”

Speaking recently during the launch of climate change adaptation projects
in Isiolo County (northern Kenya), Mr Victor Oridi, the climate Change
advisor at the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), says that
communities in the most vulnerable areas need to be empowered to adapt to
climate change impacts.

“Resources should now be devolved to these areas, especially the arid and
semi-arid regions, customised climate change projects need to be set up in
each of these regions; people in these areas should be involved in the
planning and implementation of these projects.”

According to a 2013 report by the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) entitled; ‘Africa’s Adaptation Gap: Climate Change Impacts,
Adaptation Challenges and Costs for Africa’, the continent is a
“vulnerability hotspot” for impacts of climate change.

The report notes that Africa’s adaptation challenges will grow
substantially and will be much bigger if the emissions of harmful
greenhouse gases are not limited to below 2 degrees.

Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) stipulates the
country’s commitment to low carbon development. The action plan estimates
that Kenya will require a total of 1 trillion (USD12.76 billion) by 2017 to
adapt to climate change impacts and implement the low carbon development
options.

However, Kenya relies on donor countries to fund its adaptation programmes
and projects and the funding is mostly unpredictable, volatile and
inadequate.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific
intergovernmental body under the UN, released a report recently warning
that climate change impacts could lead to droughts and an increase in
infection from diseases (both in Africa and other parts of the world.)

To cushion the populations in the hotspot regions against the impacts of a
warming world, the German researchers recommend development-coping
strategies for croppers and herders, along with improved access to
international market and insurance cover for animals and crops.

A June 2013 World Bank report: ‘Turn down the Heat: Climate Extremes,
Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience’ states that the African
continent’s growing population faces multiple climatic risks that could
have far reaching repercussions largely due to dependence on agriculture as
the main source of food and employment.

<http://africanarguments.org/2014/06/03/climate-change-and-africa-new-report-outlines-continents-hotspots-by-peter-kahare/>
by AfricanArgumentsEditor
<http://africanarguments.org/author/africanargumentseditor/>

*[image: PeterKahare]
<http://africanarguments.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/PeterKahare.jpg>NAIROBI

*Peter Kahare is a journalist based in Nairobi.* *This article was
commissioned via the African Journalism Fund.*